{"id":1963,"date":"2023-04-28T18:42:50","date_gmt":"2023-04-28T11:42:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fsb-web.tranbang.work\/acbs-nen-kinh-te-hien-tai-giong-nhu-mot-chiec-hop-pandora-va-nhung-yeu-to-se-giup-viet-nam-troi-day-tu-kho-khan\/"},"modified":"2023-04-28T18:42:50","modified_gmt":"2023-04-28T11:42:50","slug":"acbs-nen-kinh-te-hien-tai-giong-nhu-mot-chiec-hop-pandora-va-nhung-yeu-to-se-giup-viet-nam-troi-day-tu-kho-khan-s22811111531","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fsb.edu.vn\/en\/acbs-nen-kinh-te-hien-tai-giong-nhu-mot-chiec-hop-pandora-va-nhung-yeu-to-se-giup-viet-nam-troi-day-tu-kho-khan-s22811111531.html","title":{"rendered":"ACBS: N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc h\u1ed9p Pandora v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 s\u1ebd gi\u00fap Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady t\u1eeb kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n"},"content":{"rendered":"

Báo cáo m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt tình hình kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 mô c\u1ee7a ACBS \u0111ánh giá, s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Chính ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eb1m thúc \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng phía cung và kích c\u1ea7u tiêu dùng phía c\u1ea7u có th\u1ec3 là “Hy v\u1ecdng” \u0111ang tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady, \u0111em ánh sáng và s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng giúp Vi\u1ec7t Nam thoát ra kh\u1ecfi h\u1ed9p Pandora.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\tTheo báo cáo m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt tình hình kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 mô c\u1ee7a ACBS, b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf toàn c\u1ea7u \u0111ang bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m phát cao d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c các ngân hàng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 FED \u0111ã t\u0103ng lãi su\u1ea5t và th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n chính sách ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u1eaft khe \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i phó v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m phát. \u0110i\u1ec1u này \u0111ã tác \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111áng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf toàn c\u1ea7u và làm gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u tiêu dùng.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t <\/div>\n
\tK\u1ebft qu\u1ea3, trong quý 1\/2023, Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t 3,32% so v\u1edbi cùng k\u1ef3, th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2009.<\/span><\/span> \t<\/p>\n
\t\t\"\"<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t“\u0110i\u1ec1u này ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu là do s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m trong ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb ngành FDI c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m trong ngành công nghi\u1ec7p<\/em>”, ACBS \u0111ánh giá.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\tTrong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kinh t\u1ebf toàn c\u1ea7u g\u1eb7p nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, ACBS \u0111ã ch\u1ec9 ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro bên ngoài có th\u1ec3 làm t\u0103ng s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong n\u0103m 2023.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\tC\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, môi tr\u01b0\u1eddng lãi su\u1ea5t cao s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy trì ít nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2023 d\u01b0\u1edbi áp l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m phát và s\u1ebd có tác \u0111\u1ed9ng không t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. Bên c\u1ea1nh \u0111ó, FED, cùng v\u1edbi BOE và ECB \u0111ang ng\u1eebng tái \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tài s\u1ea3n \u0111áo h\u1ea1n và b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u thu h\u1eb9p giá tr\u1ecb tài s\u1ea3n trên b\u1ea3ng cân \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf toán (còn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi là ch\u01b0\u01a1ng trình Th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng) và t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi cho các ngân hàng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i vay qua c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u (v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n cho vay k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c là 153 t\u1ef7 USD).<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\u0110i\u1ec1u này có th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m áp l\u1ef1c lên lãi su\u1ea5t trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0ng t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 trong dài h\u1ea1n áp l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng lên lãi su\u1ea5t v\u1eabn còn, \u0111i\u1ec1u này có th\u1ec3 khó gi\u1ea3m lãi su\u1ea5t và \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng không t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf trong dài h\u1ea1n. Khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n tài chính ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng suy thoái kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng lên và tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng t\u1ea1i các qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 EU và M\u1ef9.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t"\u0110ây v\u1ed1n là các \u0111\u1ed1i tác th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam nên ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t và th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, v\u1ed1n v\u1eabn là \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng chính c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, d\u1ef1 báo s\u1ebd ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i trong n\u0103m 2023",<\/em> báo cáo d\u1ef1 \u0111oán.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\tNgoài ra, ACBS cho hay, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang t\u1eeb t\u1eeb m\u1edf l\u1ea1i n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf sau khi t\u1eeb b\u1ecf chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c zero-COVID. Song, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u tháng ti\u1ebfp theo m\u1edbi xác \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn các ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i y\u1ebfu trong 6 tháng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2023, nh\u01b0ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong 6 tháng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2023.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\tNh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 giúp Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady t\u1eeb khó kh\u0103n<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\tABCS nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh, m\u1eb7c dù lo ng\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111ó có th\u1ec3 làm gi\u1ea3m tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong n\u0103m 2023, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn có nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 s\u1ebd giúp Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khó kh\u0103n.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t"N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ed9p Pandora trong th\u1ea7n tho\u1ea1i Hy L\u1ea1p c\u1ed5, n\u01a1i “Hy v\u1ecdng” tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc h\u1ed9p \u0111\u1ea7y r\u1eaby chông gai. Trong \u0111ó, s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Chính ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eb1m thúc \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng phía cung và kích c\u1ea7u tiêu dùng phía c\u1ea7u có th\u1ec3 là “Hy v\u1ecdng” \u0111ang tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady, \u0111em ánh sáng và s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng giúp Vi\u1ec7t Nam thoát ra kh\u1ecfi h\u1ed9p Pandora"<\/em>, ACBS nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\t\t\tC\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, t\u1eeb phía cung, \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u tác \u0111\u1ed9ng suy gi\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, Ngân hàng Nhà n\u01b0\u1edbc Vi\u1ec7t Nam (NHNN) v\u1eeba thông báo s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m lãi su\u1ea5t tái c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n t\u1eeb 6% xu\u1ed1ng còn 5,5%, có hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb 3\/4.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\tTheo ACBS, d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 NHNN \u0111ang hành \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m chi phí v\u1ed1n và khuy\u1ebfn khích các ngân hàng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m lãi su\u1ea5t cho vay, nh\u1eb1m h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 doanh nghi\u1ec7p và cá nhân ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn tín d\u1ee5ng và h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Ngoài ra, gi\u1ea3m chi phí vay có th\u1ec3 thúc \u0111\u1ea9y chi tiêu tiêu dùng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi tiêu dùng, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\t“Cu\u1ed1i cùng nh\u01b0ng không kém ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng, chúng tôi tin r\u1eb1ng Chính ph\u1ee7 và NHNN ch\u1ec9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng chính sách ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t công c\u1ee5 b\u1ed5 tr\u1ee3 thay vì m\u1ed9t công c\u1ee5 chính \u0111\u1ec3 thúc \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. Vì chúng tôi ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng NHNN \u0111ã h\u1ebft d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 có thêm m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m lãi su\u1ea5t b\u1ed5 sung trong n\u0103m nay”<\/em>, báo cáo \u0111ánh giá.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\tBên c\u1ea1nh \u0111ó, gói h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tài khóa, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u01b0\u1edbc tính kho\u1ea3ng 347 nghìn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng (291 nghìn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng cho gói h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tài khóa và 56 nghìn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng cho gói h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7), \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i và phát tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf – xã h\u1ed9i sau d\u1ecbch COVID-19 m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i ngân kho\u1ea3ng 16% t\u1ed5ng gói. Ngh\u0129a là, v\u1eabn còn kho\u1ea3ng 290 nghìn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3i ngân trong n\u0103m 2023.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\tBên c\u1ea1nh \u0111ó, \u01b0\u1edbc tính kho\u1ea3ng 680 nghìn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n ngân sách Nhà n\u01b0\u1edbc trong n\u0103m 2023 c\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3i ngân. Vi\u1ec7c này s\u1ebd thúc \u0111\u1ea9y ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i và phát tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf – xã h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong n\u0103m 2023.<\/span><\/span> \t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tCu\u1ed1i cùng, th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111ây Chính ph\u1ee7 \u0111ã thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chính sách h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho ngành b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 Ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh 08 và Ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft 33.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\t\tACBS cho bi\u1ebft, các chính sách này giúp gi\u1ea3m áp l\u1ef1c thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, kh\u01a1i thông dòng v\u1ed1n và khôi ph\u1ee5c nhu c\u1ea7u B\u0110S thông qua các các bi\u1ec7n pháp h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\t\tTheo \u0111ó, các chuyên gia c\u1ee7a ACBS k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd có nhi\u1ec1u chính sách h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf khóa dòng v\u1ed1n cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n trong 3-6 tháng t\u1edbi, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t là Lu\u1eadt \u0110\u1ea5t \u0111ai s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103m 2023. B\u1edfi n\u1ebfu Lu\u1eadt này \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c phê duy\u1ec7t vào tháng 10\/2023 và có hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb Q2\/2024, s\u1ebd g\u1ee1 b\u1ecf rào c\u1ea3n pháp lý trong vi\u1ec7c phê duy\u1ec7t các d\u1ef1 án nhà m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf, giúp ngu\u1ed3n cung nhà \u1edf d\u1ea7n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2024-2025.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\t\tLiên quan \u0111\u1ebfn y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1eeb phía c\u1ea7u, báo cáo c\u1ee7a ACBS cho hay, Chính ph\u1ee7 ban hành Ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh 12\/2023\/N\u0110-CP gia h\u1ea1n th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n n\u1ed9p thu\u1ebf giá tr\u1ecb gia t\u0103ng, thu\u1ebf thu nh\u1eadp doanh nghi\u1ec7p, thu\u1ebf thu nh\u1eadp cá nhân và ti\u1ec1n thuê \u0111\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2023.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\t\tBên c\u1ea1nh \u0111ó B\u1ed9 Tài chính \u0111ã \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf giá tr\u1ecb gia t\u0103ng (VAT) t\u1eeb 10% xu\u1ed1ng còn 8% cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 hàng hóa và d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 kích thích n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, chính sách này có th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng bán l\u1ebb.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n
\t\t\t\tD\u1ef1a trên nh\u1eefng c\u0103n c\u1ee9 \u0111ã \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u1edf trên, các chuyên gia c\u1ee7a ACBS d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1t trong kho\u1ea3ng 4,4% – 5,1% trong n\u0103m 2023.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tNgu\u1ed3n: Nh\u1ecbp s\u1ed1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\t\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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